AFL odds guide
A better AFL line versus a better payout
Compare settlement thresholds before ranking two AFL handicap offers by decimal price.
The line changes the result required
A +8.5 AFL line allows the selected club to lose by eight points and still cover. At +6.5, a seven- or eight-point loss does not cover. A higher decimal price at +6.5 therefore buys a harder condition than a lower price at +8.5. The two offers belong in separate comparison rows.
Price matters within one line
If two bookmakers offer the same club at +8.5 on the same match and period, 1.95 pays more than 1.90 for the same winning stake. The difference on a $100 stake is $5 in gross return. Neither quote tells you the probability of the club covering or whether either is a value bet.
Use a result scenario
When lines differ, test how a plausible final margin would settle each bet before comparing the possible payouts. Also check whether the market is full-time and includes any extra time under the bookmaker's terms. A line and its settlement rule define the bet; the price only describes what it pays if it wins.
Worked example
Illustration: Club A +8.5 at 1.90 wins on a seven-point loss, while Club A +6.5 at 2.02 loses. On a ten-point loss both lose. The second quote's larger number does not make it the better price for the first bet.
Illustrative numbers for explaining the calculation. They are not current bookmaker quotes.
Sources and method
All prices and margins are hypothetical. The example compares distinct AFL line thresholds and an equal $100 stake; it does not choose a bet.
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